Tuesday, May 13, 2008


Heading to the voting booth


If you feel comfortable returning the Clintons to the White House, keep in mind that more than half the country has a lasting resistance to her, see these 2 summaries ...

Among 1600 likely voters, the % who answer they view the candidate favorably, in blue, or unfavorably, in red, is:


The numbers were polled by Rasmussen Reports on Monday May 12.

If the portion of voters that gives a candidate a negative approval rating (disapprove) outweighs the chunk of voters who approve, the candidate doesn't have much of a shot at overtaking the GOP opponent in November, even if the core party supporters are enthusiastic and loyal.

Below, the bright blue line-plot connects the percent approval polled daily from Feb. 11 through May 12. And the gold line is the percent judging the candidate unfavorably over the same time period. For Hillary, almost always the unfavorable number has been over 50%, even though in recent primaries she does win core constituencies among Democrats.



When the negatives are over 50 and overwhelm the positives in a population of Democrats, independents and Republicans (a gap), that's discouraging. The vertical lines of dots are added in to show the gold-to-blue gap (potential loss in red).

Here's the line plot for Feb 11 to May 12 for Obama, below. For him the favorables (blue line) are usually above 50% and the unfavorables are below.



Since mid-March, however, the continuing infighting in the campaign has certainly kept Hillary's unfavorable numbers high and tamped down Obama's favorables too. The biggest gainer is . . .



... John McCain.

[Legend: vertical line of red or pink dots means the net sentiment favors the Republican, line of blue dots means the net sentiment favors the Democrat.]

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